Women’s Basketball Semifinals Preview

Can Australia slow down the U.S.? And why France vs. Belgium is a must-watch!

PARIS (France) – Four teams will compete for a chance to play in the 2024 Olympic gold medal game. The United States leads the field as the winners of the last seven Olympic tournaments. The U.S. will have to go through Australia to have a chance at an eighth.

Belgium will face host nation and Tokyo bronze medalists France on the other side of the bracket. Who has the best chance to punch their ticket and compete for gold?

If we take a look at the Fanduel Olympic Futures odds, the United States will face France in the gold medal game. The odds in the United States are at -3500, while the French women sit at +2300, and their opponents, Belgium, sit at +3500. Australia has the same odds to win gold, per Fanduel.

United States v. Australia 5:30 local/11:30 AM ET

Overall, I agree with the oddsmakers here. Although Australia has been playing better, the United States has more scoring and depth. Additionally, Jackie Young has been on the rise and is well-trusted by Cheryl Reeve to shut down the biggest offensive threat for USA’s opponent on any given day.

“She's playing the way we want to play on both ends of the floor,” the USA Basketball head coach told media Wednesday night after their win over Nigeria. “She gets the space that she wants to get to. She's persistent. Again, plays the schemes, you know, great help defender, great rotator, great rebounder, does a lot of things.”

Young was inserted into the starting lineup on Wednesday, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her start again against Australia. She averages just above 10 points per game throughout her second Olympics and her first on the five-on-five senior team.

Young earned her first gold medal in 2021 alongside Las Vegas Aces Kelsey Plum in the Tokyo 3×3 Women’s Basketball Tournament. Although Plum was originally selected for the team, Young was added after Katie Lou Samuelson contracted COVID and could not participate. The duo is now a reliable asset to Reeve and the USA in their quest for gold.

“I really love what Plum did (against Nigeria), and so again, we've been playing around with some rotations, and Plum was very patient as we work through some of that,” Reeve said.

“She's a player that, when her numbers call, she bounces off that bench, and she gets in there, and she's ready to help the basketball team. And so I appreciate Kelsey. Thinks she's had a good tournament. I'm looking forward to how this thing will finish with her being a part of it,” Reeve added.

Yet, former WNBA first-overall Draft PIcks, both Plum and Young trail behind the dynamic USA duo of A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart. Through four tournament games, Wilson is the only player to maintain a 20+ points per game average (20.3). She and Stewart have had eerily similar stats throughout the Paris 2024 Games and remain the driving force for a stacked USA team.

At the moment, FIBA has Breanna Stewart leading all tournament MVP candidates and Belgium's Emma Meesseman in second. You wouldn’t go wrong with any of these players, including Gabby Williams, who is currently fourth in the FIBA rankings. However, there is something undeniable about Wilson’s play this year, including for the Aces in the WNBA.

While I don’t think her pro play should be the ultimate deciding factor, it helps tell the story of consistency and a constant strive to find another level. As I told CBS Sports HQ after pool play, A’ja Wilson is the Team USA MVP and likely the tournament MVP.

What I hope is not lost is the leadership Breanna Stewart brings to the team and her ability to plug the holes– be they sparse – the United States may have on any given play. Stewie plays, as Black Rosie Media contributor Roberta Rodrigues said on our quarterfinals preview, the most complete FIBA-level game. She is suited for overseas play, and it is a tight matchup with being the x-factor for the States.

“My hot take is that Stewie is the best FIBA 5×5 player for Team USA, and that’s– I don’t know if the expression is correct– that’s the hill I’m going to die on,” Rodrigues said.

It’s hard to disagree. Should the USA face off against Belgium and Meesseman, my hot take (as mentioned above) is that Stewart will be more valuable to Reeve and the team than Wilson.

Belgium v. France 5:30 local/3:00 PM ET

However, I’m not sure I’m willing to punch Belgium’s ticket to the gold medal game just yet. If we take another look at the Fanduel odds, France is favored in tonight’s game at Bercy Arena in Paris. It’s a solid bet, though I’m reluctant to call it “safe.”

Firstly, the Cats are 4-0 over Les Blues in their most recent clashes. Secondly, although Belgium has not had to rely on its perimeter shooting because– Meesseman, amirite? Belgium has the personnel to expose France should they clog the paint defensively.

It’s been a rollercoaster for Belgium, and their star player sometimes lost her belief.

“I have to be honest that I was not really believing anymore after the first game,” she admitted after the win over España on Wednesday afternoon. However, Meesseman had to relinquish any expectations and learned to play free.

“I was just saying, ‘I'm just going to enjoy basketball, play for the fans, for ourselves. So you can end on a great note and be proud when you go home,’ and turns out that's key, you know? That's how we play best.”

Final Verdict

The key to a win in the final game of the women’s semifinals might boil down to depth, and France wins that battle. The second unit of attack averages 40 points per game for Les Blues, compared to 10.8 for the Cats.

In their win over España, Marine “The Magician” Johannès scored 24 points, the most for any player in the quarterfinals. She, too, released any expectations or pressure heading into the knockout stage.

“I was talking to friends earlier, and they just told me, like, to be free on the court,” Jonannés told Black Rosie Media on Wednesday.

We all get by with a little help from our friends, and France will have the home-court advantage. Either way, history will be made, as neither country has ever had the honor to play for a gold medal in Olympic play.

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